Scenario analysis
6 modelled outcomes · click any card to expand
● LIVE
Apr 12, 2026
Ceasefire exp. Apr 21
Ceasefire
Apr 21
calculating…
Hormuz
Blocked
Iran controlling passage
Islamabad
No deal
Talks collapsed Apr 12
Lebanon displaced
1M+
600K from south alone
Consumer sentiment
47.6
Record low · Univ. Michigan
Impact:
■ Low
■ Medium
■ High
■ Critical
Public sentiment by audience · sourced from ACLED, NIAC, Euronews, CNBC
Dominant narratives
Pro-Western / pro-strike
Gaming clips, superhero memes, dominance humour from US gov accounts. Frames war as controlled and winnable. Strongest among Western right-wing audiences.
Pro-Iran / resistance
Lego-Trump videos (700K+ views), Minab school imagery, Epstein counter-messaging. Targeting Western anti-war sentiment across fragmented audiences.
Anti-war / ceasefire
Driven by civilian casualty footage and UNICEF data. Strongest in Europe. 61.6% of Iranian-Americans favour diplomacy over military escalation (NIAC poll).
Disinfo / deepfakes
AI-generated videos from both sides. Netanyahu "sixth finger" deepfake circulated widely. Experts warn deepfakes have crossed a "critical threshold" — glitches eliminated.
Key signals
Inside Iran: Security forces fired on street celebrants after Khamenei's death. Khomeini monument toppled Mar 1. State media shows pro-government rallies; independent footage shows celebrations.
Iranian diaspora: NIAC poll — 49.3% oppose strikes, 48.9% support. Nearly 50/50 split reflects deep fracture in diaspora identity.
Gulf public: Kuwait Emir expressed shock at being attacked by a "Muslim country they consider a friend." Public sentiment broadly favours de-escalation.
Western consumers: University of Michigan index hit record low of 47.6, down 10.7% from March. Survey comments directly blame the Iran conflict for economic anxiety and rising inflation.
Memetic warfare: Both sides using AI content at scale. Expert: "deepfakes have crossed a critical threshold — tell-tale glitches eliminated, accessible to anyone."
Trending themes
#OperationEpsteinFury#MinabSchool#LegoTrump#OpenTheStrait#IranWar#CeasefireNow#HormuzCrisis#IranianDiaspora
Sentiment estimates derived from ACLED event analysis, NIAC polling, University of Michigan survey, Euronews, CNBC, and Wikipedia research. Not real-time social listening data. Figures are indicative.
Regional news feed
Loading…
Fetching latest articles…
Conflict timeline
Adjust scenario probabilities
Drag sliders to update your probability assessments. Apply to refresh all charts and scenario cards.
Total assigned100%